Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks finished 4.1% below previous year levels throughout Dec ’21, reaching an 11 year low level and a 24 year low seasonal level for the month of December.
• U.S. beef stocks remained below previous year levels for the tenth consecutive month, finishing down 6.0%.
• U.S. chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level throughout Dec ’21, finishing 14.1% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the 17^th experienced in a row.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Decline to an 11 Year Low Level, Finish 4.1% Lower YOY

According to the USDA, Dec ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally to an 11 year low level, finishing 4.1% below previous year levels and reaching a 24 year low seasonal level for the month of December. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 20^th experienced throughout the past 21 months. The month-over-month decline in pork stocks of 3.2 million pound, or 0.8%, was largely consistent with the ten year average November – December seasonal decline in stocks of 7.0 million pounds, or 1.4%.

Beef – Stocks Remain Below Previous Year Levels for the Tenth Consecutive Month, Down 6.0%

Dec ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased seasonally to a ten month high level but remained 6.0% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the tenth experienced in a row. The month-over-month increase in beef stocks of 13.4 million pounds, or 2.7%, was consistent with the ten year average November – December seasonal build in stocks of 11.9 million pounds, or 2.6%.

Chicken – Stocks Remain at a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Finished 14.1% Lower YOY

Dec ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined seasonally to a three month low level while finishing 14.1% below previous year levels and remaining at a seven year low seasonal level for the month of December. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the 17^th experienced in a row. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through Jul ’20, prior to finishing lower over each of the past 17 months of available data. The month-over-month decline in chicken stocks of 3.1 million pounds, or 0.4%, was smaller than the ten year average November – December seasonal decline in stocks of 12.6 million pounds, or 1.5%.

Overall, Dec ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 21% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Dec ’21 beef and chicken stocks finished 11% and 24% below their respective record high historical storage levels, while pork stocks finished 43% below the maximum historical storage level.

Dec ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks reached a ten year low seasonal level, finishing 19% below the record high seasonal level experienced during December of 2019. Individually, Dec ’21 beef stocks finished 11% below the record high seasonal storage level, while chicken and pork stocks finished 24% and 31% below their respective record high seasonal storage levels.

Dec ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks rebounded slightly from the previous month but remained 9.4% below previous year levels. The Dec ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 20^th experienced in a row.