Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production volumes remained below previous year levels for the second consecutive month throughout Dec ’21, finishing down 0.1%. YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by New Mexico, followed by Washington and New York. California, South Dakota and Wisconsin milk production volumes finished most significantly above previous year levels throughout the month.
• The Nov ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 3,000 head below levels previously stated while the Dec ’21 figure declined an additional 7,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a 16 month low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.375 million head, down 132,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 and finishing 67,000 head below the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields finished 0.6% above previous year levels throughout Dec ’21, remaining higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Dec ’21 U.S. milk production volumes increased seasonally to a five month high level but remained 0.1% below previous year figures. The month-over-month increase in production volumes of 1.1% was slightly smaller than the ten year average November – December increase of 1.3%.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes had rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 27 of the past 28 months through Oct ’21 before declining throughout the two most recent months of available data.

’20-’21 annual U.S. milk production volumes finished 2.4% above previous year levels, reaching a 13 year high annual growth rate. ’21-’22 YTD production volumes have declined by 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, however. The USDA is projecting U.S. milk production volumes will increase 0.7% throughout the 2022 calendar year.

YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by New Mexico (-15.0%), followed by Washington (-7.3%), Illinois (-5.2%) and Florida (-5.2%), while production volumes finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis within South Dakota (+20.0%), Texas (+3.4%) and Georgia (+2.6%). Overall, 14 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY declines in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes increased 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the third consecutive month. California accounted for 18.7% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Five of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY declines in production throughout Dec ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states declined by a weighted average of <0.1% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Dec ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Dec ’21 YOY declines in milk production on an absolute basis were led by New Mexico, followed by Washington and New York, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout California, followed by South Dakota and Wisconsin.

The Nov ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 3,000 head below levels previous stated while the Dec ’21 figure declined an additional 7,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a 16 month low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.375 million head, down 132,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 and finishing 67,000 head below the previous year.

Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds were led by New York, followed by New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Washington. Month-over-month increases in milk cow herds were led by South Dakota, followed by Idaho, Colorado and Georgia.

Dec ’21 YOY declines in milk cow herds continued to be led by New Mexico, followed by Washington and Ohio, while the South Dakota, Wisconsin and Texas milk cow herds finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 0.6% above previous year levels throughout Dec ’21, remaining higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. U.S. milk per cow yields had finished below previous year levels just once over a five and a half year period ending Jul ’21, prior to declining throughout the months of Aug-Sep ’21.

Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 0.1% below previous year levels throughout Dec ’21 however yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon finished 0.6% above previous year levels.