Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jan ’22 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 2.9% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level.
• U.S. pork production declined 6.0% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, also remaining below previous year levels for the eighth consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level.
• U.S. beef production increased 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, finishing above previous year levels for the first time in the past seven months.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Reaches a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 2.9% YOY

According to the USDA, Jan ’22 U.S. commercial red meat production rebounded from the three month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 2.9% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the eighth experienced in a row. The month-over-month increase in total red meat production of 1.6% was larger than the ten year average December – January seasonal build of 0.2%.

’20-’21 annual red meat production finished 0.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fifth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD red meat production has declined by 3.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a three year low level.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 53^rd consecutive month throughout Jan ’22. The most recent deviation from trendline was the smallest experienced throughout the past 39 months, however.

Pork – Production Reaches a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 6.0% YOY

U.S. pork production remained below previous year levels for the eight consecutive month throughout Jan ’22 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 6.0% and reaching a three year low seasonal level. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 5.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while average weights per head finished 0.3% below previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual pork production finished 1.5% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous year, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven years. ’21-’22 YTD pork production has declined by an additional 6.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season and is on pace to reach a three year low level.

Beef – Production Finishes Above Previous Year Levels for the First Time in Seven Months, up 0.3%

Jan ’22 U.S. beef production finished 0.3% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months. The total number of cattle slaughtered increased 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.1% decline in average weights per head.

’20-’21 annual beef production finished 2.2% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. ’21-’22 YTD beef production has declined by 1.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.