Executive Summary

U.S. grocery store and food service & drinking place sales remained significantly above pre-pandemic levels through Jan ’22 while more recent seated diner and TSA checkpoint travel figures suggest omicron concerns eased throughout the month of February. Important points to consider include:

• U.S. grocery store sales remained significantly above pre-pandemic seasonal levels for the 23^rd consecutive month throughout Jan ’22, reaching the second highest monthly figure on record. Food service & drinking place sales declined to a seven month low level throughout the month of January on omicron concerns but remained significantly above pre-pandemic seasonal levels. Jan ’22 combined grocery store and food service & drinking place sales declined to a nine month low level when adjusted for inflation, finishing 0.9% below pre-pandemic trendline figures.
• The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index declined to a four month low level throughout Jan ’22 but remained in an expansionary state for the 12^th consecutive month. The RPI Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook on industry indicators, also declined to a four month low level.
• Seated diner figures provided by OpenTable finished just 4.9% below pre-pandemic seasonal levels throughout Feb ’22. The decline was the smallest experienced throughout the past seven months and the second smallest experienced since the beginning of the pandemic.

Grocery Store & Food Service Sales

The initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a pronounced divergence in grocery store and food service & drinking place sales. Grocery stores sales reached a record high monthly level throughout Mar ’20 as many stocked up on staples in anticipation of lockdowns while food service & drinking place sales declined to a 16 year low level throughout Apr ’20 as stay-at-home orders were placed.

Grocery store sales have remained significantly above pre-pandemic seasonal levels over 23 consecutive months through Jan ’22. Jan ’22 grocery store sales reached a 22 month high level and the second highest monthly level on record, finishing 8.9% above previous year levels and 20.3% above pre-pandemic seasonal levels. 2020 annual grocery store sales finished 11.3% higher on a YOY basis, while 2021 annual sales increased by an additional 4.1%.

Food service & drinking place sales remained below pre-pandemic seasonal levels over 12 consecutive months through Feb ’21, prior to fully rebounding over the 11 most recent months of available data. Jan ’22 food service & drinking place sales declined to a seven month low level but remained 27.0% above previous year levels and 8.6% above pre-pandemic seasonal levels. 2020 annual food service & drinking place sales finished 19.4% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a six year low level, prior to rebounding by 31.5% throughout the 2021 calendar year.

Jan ’22 combined grocery store and food service & drinking place sales declined to a nine month low level when adjusted for inflation, finishing 0.9% below pre-pandemic trendline figures. Combined grocery store and good service & drinking place sales had finished above pre-pandemic trendline figures when adjusted for inflation over seven consecutive months through Nov ’21, prior to finishing lower throughout the months of December and January.

Restaurant Performance Index

The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) declined to a four month low level throughout Jan ’22 but remained in an expansionary state for the 12^th consecutive month, finishing at a level of 103.2. The RPI is a statistical barometer that measures the overall health of the U.S. restaurant industry. A value above 100 signals a period of expansion while a value below 100 signals a period of contraction, with the distance from 100 signifying the magnitude of the expansion or contraction.

The RPI reached a record high level of 106.3 throughout Apr ’21 and has remained within an expansionary state since. The elevated RPI continues to overstate the current health of the U.S. restaurant industry, however, due to dampened year-ago comparisons for indicators such as same-store sales and customer traffic indicators.

55% of restaurant operators indicated customer traffic was above previous year figures throughout Jan ’22, while 73% of restaurant operators reported higher same-store sales. Two-year comparisons remain negative, however, with just 41% of restaurant operators saying their Jan ’22 sales were up from Jan ’20 levels.

The RPI has indicated that the U.S. restaurant industry expanded over three and a half consecutive years through Feb ’20, prior to contracting throughout 11 consecutive months through Feb ’21. RPI figures reached record low levels throughout Mar-Apr ’20, consistent with the declines experienced in food service & drinking place sales. RPI figures have been provided since early 2002.

The RPI has exhibited a moderate correlation with domestic cheese demand, historically, as the restaurant industry has been a main source of consumption growth. The correlation in the RPI and YOY growth in domestic cheese demand was most pronounced following the financial crisis of 2008, when both declined significantly, each reaching record low levels on a 12-month rolling average basis. Similar declines were exhibited within the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, with each metric rebounding since.

The RPI Current Situation Index, which measures current industry trend indicators, finished at an 11 month low level of 103.0 throughout Jan ’22 but remained elevated, overall. The RPI Current Situation Index had ranged from values of 92.8 – 96.8 from Mar ’20 – Feb ’21, prior to reaching record high levels over more recent months.

The RPI Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook on industry indicators, declined to a four month low level throughout Jan ’22, reaching a level of 103.5. 60% of operators expect their sales volume in six months to be higher than it was during the same period of the previous year, down from 67% last month. 33% of operators expect economic conditions to improve in six months while 25% of operators think economic conditions will worsen over the same period. That represented the weakest outlook for the economy since the Nov ’21 survey.

OpenTable Seated Diners

Total U.S. seated diner figures provided by OpenTable exhibited a similar pattern to the food service & drinking place sales throughout 2020. Seated diner figures showed YOY restaurant activity steadily rebounding from the Apr ’20 lows through the month of September, prior to finishing flat-to-lower throughout the final quarter of the calendar year.

More recently, declines in seated diners have subsided as figures have steadily rebounded throughout the first half of 2021, prior to remaining slightly below pre-pandemic levels over the second half of the calendar year. Jan ’22 seated diners returned to a nine month low level when indexed to 2019 levels on omicron concerns, however Feb ’22 seated diners finished just 4.9% below pre-pandemic seasonal levels. The Feb ’22 decline in seated diner figures from pre-pandemic seasonal levels was the smallest experienced in the past seven months and the second smallest experienced since the beginning of the pandemic.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Monthly TSA checkpoint travel numbers, a data series tangentially related to food service sales, have steadily rebounded since the initial stages of the pandemic. Feb ’22 TSA checkpoint travel numbers remained sharply above previous year figures for the 12^th consecutive month but remained 15.4% below 2019 seasonal levels. The deviation in TSA checkpoint travel numbers from pre-pandemic seasonal levels was the smallest experienced since the beginning of the pandemic.