According to the March USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, the 2022 milk production projection was reduced by 1.2 billion pounds, or 0.5%, from the previous month on lower projected dairy cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow yields. 2022 milk production volumes are currently expected to finish 0.1% below previous year levels, declining on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 13 years.

2022 dairy export forecasts were reduced from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis on lower expected shipments of skim milk powder, whole milk powder and whey products.

2022 dairy import forecasts were reduced from the previous month on a milk-fat basis on lower expected imports of cheese and butterfat products but raised from the previous month on a skim-solids basis on higher expected imports of milk proteins.

2022 projected dairy export volumes equated to 17.6% of total U.S. milk solids production, down from the record high level experienced throughout 2021, while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production, largely unchanged from the previous year. 2022 net dairy trade is projected to finish below the record high level experienced throughout the previous year but remain at the second highest level on record.

2022 butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were all raised from the previous month on current prices, lower expected production and continued demand strength. The 2022 Class III milk price forecast of $21.65/cwt was raised $1.35/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 26.8% above previous year price levels. The 2022 Class IV milk price forecast of $23.70/cwt was raised $1.40/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 47.3% above previous year price levels. The 2022 All-Milk price forecast of $25.05/cwt was raised $1.50/cwt from the previous month, finishing 34.0% above the previous year price levels and reaching a record high level, overall.