Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products remained at a record high seasonal levels on a milk-fat basis throughout Jan ’22 but finished slightly below previous year levels on a skim-solids basis on weaker export volumes. Domestic demand increased 3.1% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 0.7% on a skim-solids basis throughout the month, each reaching record high seasonal levels.
• U.S. butter and cheese disappearance each remained at record high seasonal levels throughout Jan ’22 while whey protein concentrate disappearance increased to a three year high seasonal level. Dry whey disappearance remained at a three year low seasonal level, however, while nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance finished below previous year levels for the third consecutive month.
• U.S. fluid milk sales remained below previous year levels for the 15^th time in the past 17 months throughout Dec ’21, declining by 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Higher YOY on a Milk-Fat Basis, Slightly Lower YOY on a Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis remained at a record high seasonal level for the third consecutive month throughout Jan ’22, finishing 3.7% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis was the 14^th experienced throughout the past 15 months. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 17.3% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 2.5% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 12^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.8%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has increased by an additional 2.8% throughout the first third of the production season.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22 but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY decline in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis was the second experienced in a row. Export demand declined 5.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY increase in domestic disappearance. Domestic dairy disappearance on a skim-solids basis reached a record high seasonal level for the month of January.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.8% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance finished 0.2% below previous year levels, however, reaching a three year low level. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has increased by an additional 0.9% throughout the first third of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines.

Butter – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 16.1% YOY

U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 16.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY increase in butter disappearance was the seventh experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis. Domestic butter disappearance increased 15.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 25.0% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual butter disappearance finished 4.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the fourth consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.9%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has increased by an additional 6.1% throughout the first third of the production season.

U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Jan ’22, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally from the two year low level experienced throughout the previous month. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the following calendar year.

Cheese – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 3.5% YOY

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.5% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the third consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese disappearance was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months.

American cheese disappearance increased 3.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 3.4% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in American cheese disappearance was the largest experienced throughout the past eight months. Domestic cheese disappearance increased 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 16.7% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual cheese disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 26^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has increased by an additional 3.0% throughout the first third of the production season.

U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Jan ’22, resulting in stocks increasing seasonally to a three month high level.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 1.9% YOY

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in dry whey disappearance was the seventh experienced throughout the past nine months. Dry whey export demand declined 33.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 28.7% YOY increase in domestic demand.

’20-’21 annual dry whey disappearance finished 3.9% below previous year levels, reaching a six year low annual level. Domestic disappearance declined 23.5%, reaching a seven year low level. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 0.1% throughout the first third of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines.

U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Jan ’22, resulting in stocks declining to a five year low level.

WPC – Disappearance Reaches a Three Year High Seasonal Level, up 10.8% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 10.8% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in WPC commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced in a row. Domestic WPC disappearance increased 32.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 10.0% YOY decline in export demand.

’20-’21 annual WPC disappearance finished 0.7% below previous year levels, reaching an eight year low level. Domestic disappearance finished 10.1% below previous year levels, reaching a nine year low annual level. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 8.7% throughout the first third of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high level.

U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Jan ’22, resulting in stocks increasing to a three and a half year high level.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Down 4.7%

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, remaining below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. NFDM/SMP export demand declined 5.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while domestic demand finished 3.2% below previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance finished 0.7% above previous year levels, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance declined 17.2%, however, reaching a 27 year low annual level. ’21-’22 YTD disappearance has declined by 3.1% throughout the first third of the production season.

U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Jan ’22, resulting in stocks increasing seasonally to a four month high level.

Jan ’22 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by cheese, followed by butter, while declines were most significant for NFDM/SMP. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were also led by cheese, while declines were most significant for dry whey, followed by NFDM/SMP.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Down 2.6% YOY

U.S. fluid milk sales remained below previous year figures for the 15^th time in the past 17 months throughout Dec ’21, declining by 2.6% and remaining at a record low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 11.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

’20-’21 annual fluid milk sales finished 3.4% below previous year levels, reaching a record low annual level, while ’21-’22 YTD fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 2.9% throughout the first third of the production season. Fluid milk sales declined 3.8% throughout the 2021 calendar year, finishing below previous year levels for the 12^th consecutive year.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the 16^th time in the past 17 months throughout Dec ’21, finishing down 1.8% and remaining at a record low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. ’20-’21 annual fat consumed within fluid milk finished 4.2% below the three year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching the lowest annual level on record. ’21-’22 YTD fat consumed within fluid milk has declined by an additional 2.8% throughout the first third of the production season.