Executive Summary

EU-27+UK milk deliveries provided by Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jan ’22 EU-27+UK milk deliveries remained below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month, finishing down 0.6% and reaching a three year low seasonal level.
• Jan ’22 YOY declines in milk deliveries were led by Germany, followed by France (estimated based on the previous month) and the Netherlands, while milk deliveries increased most significantly from the previous year throughout Italy and Poland. Overall, 16 of the 28 countries experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries throughout the month.
• EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates declined to a ten year low seasonal level throughout Dec ’21, finishing 1.9% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days.

Additional Report Details

Milk Production

According to Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom, Jan ’22 EU-27+UK milk deliveries rebounded seasonally to a four month high level but remained 0.6% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level.

Figures for France, Greece and Luxembourg are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in deliveries. France, Greece and Luxembourg have accounted for 15.8% of total EU-27+UK milk deliveries throughout the past 12 months.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK milk deliveries finished 0.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD EU-27+UK milk deliveries have increased by an additional 0.1% throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite recently experienced declines.

EU-27+UK milk deliveries have declined over five consecutive months through Feb ’22. EU-27+UK milk deliveries had finished higher on a YOY basis over 26 of 29 months through Jun ’21, prior to finishing below previous year levels over six of the seven most recent months of available data.

Jan ’22 YOY declines in milk deliveries on an absolute basis were led by Germany, followed by France (estimated based on the previous month) and the Netherlands, while YOY increases in deliveries on an absolute basis were led by Italy, followed by Poland.

YOY declines in milk deliveries on a percentage basis were led by Malta (-7.4%), followed by Ireland (-4.1%) and Croatia (-3.8%), while increases in milk deliveries on a percentage basis were led by Lithuania (+6.3%), followed by Austria (+5.2%) and Latvia (+4.9%).

The four largest milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries during Jan ’22, contributing to deliveries within the top ten milk producing member states declining by a weighted average of 0.6% throughout the month. The top ten EU-27+UK milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-27+UK milk deliveries experienced throughout the month. Milk deliveries outside of the top ten milk producing member states declined by 0.4% on a YOY basis. Overall, 16 of the 28 countries experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries during Jan ’22.

Beef & Dairy Cow Slaughter

Dec ’21 EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 1.9% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a ten year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout France, followed by the United Kingdom and Germany.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive year, finishing down 3.4% and reaching a seven year low level. The USDA is projecting a 1.3% YOY decline in the EU-27+UK dairy cow herd throughout the 2022 calendar, following the general trend towards an overall smaller herd size and more productive animals.