Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 17^th time in the past 18 months throughout Feb ’22, finishing 9.9% below previous year figures and reaching an eight year low seasonal level.
• Feb ’22 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks increased seasonally to a seven month high level but remained 16.0% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Finish at an Eight Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 9.9% YOY

According to the USDA, Feb ’22 month-end dry whey stocks increased seasonally to a five month high level but remained 9.9% below previous year levels, reaching an eight year low seasonal level. Dry whey stocks have finished below previous year levels over 17 of 18 months through Feb ’22, although the Feb ’22 YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 12 months on a percentage basis.

The month-over-month increase in dry whey stocks of 6.4 million pounds, or 11.4%, was larger than the ten year average January – February seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 3.1 million pounds, or 4.5%. Dry whey production declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, remaining below previous year levels for the third consecutive month.

On a days of usage basis, Feb ’22 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 7.8% below previous year levels, declining on a YOY basis for the 13^th consecutive month and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 16.0% YOY

Feb ’22 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased seasonally to a seven month high level but remained 16.0% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the fifth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past ten months on a percentage basis.

The month-over-month increase in NFDM stocks of 27.2 million pounds, or 10.4%, was largely consistent with the ten year average January – February seasonal build in stocks of 21.7 million pounds, or 10.3%. NFDM production declined 6.9% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’22, finishing below previous year levels for the seventh time in the past eight months.

On a days of usage basis, Feb ’22 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 13.6% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months and reaching a four year low seasonal level.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 5.5% below previous year levels throughout Feb ’22, declining on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. A 21.0% YOY decline in Class IV milk product (butter and nonfat dry milk) stock volumes more than offset a 1.7% YOY increase in Class III milk product (cheese & dry whey) stock volumes throughout the month.